Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s daytime peak on 1 August is the event being priced, measured at Taipei Songshan Airport Station and settled against the day’s highest reading on Wunderground. The current market shows a heavy preference for the 36°C bucket, while adjacent outcomes such as 37°C still attract meaningful interest; that leaves the contract effectively anchored in the mid-30s Celsius rather than on the extremes. By contrast, the 0% YES figure in your prompt is inconsistent with the temperature distributions in the public market data, which point to a plainly non-zero chance of a hot-afternoon print.[3][1]

The broader framing is straightforward: early August is typically among Taipei’s hottest and stickiest periods, with published August averages around 32–34°C for daily highs and repeated descriptions of hot, wet, storm-prone conditions.[1][2][11][17][19] Comparable weather references also show that Taipei can occasionally spike well above the average, including a recent August record cited at 38°C in 2017, which matters because this contract resolves on the single highest reading rather than a daily mean.[10][13] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather previews and travel guides cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, broadly consistent with the prediction market’s centre of gravity, although the contract is more finely sliced than standard forecasts.[1][8][11]

The main catalysts for traders are the afternoon temperature trend, any rain or thunderstorm cover, and whether sea-breeze or cloud build-up suppresses the day’s maximum before the local early-afternoon peak. Because settlement uses the highest observed temperature at the station, the relevant dependency is not the evening forecast but whether Taipei breaks into the 36–38°C band before convective weather arrives; late changes after the first reading for 2 August will not count under the market rules.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.