Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 16 August 2026, measured in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity; without knowing the exact range boundaries, the current odds suggest either very narrow parameters or substantial uncertainty about which bracket will resolve true.

August temperatures in Taipei historically cluster between 32–36°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 37°C even during peak summer heat. The Central Weather Administration's records from the past five years show only occasional days above 35°C in mid-August, though the 2023 summer saw several consecutive days near 36°C. This seasonal baseline matters because it anchors what constitutes an outlier outcome versus routine summer conditions at the airport station.

Traders should monitor the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat advisories as August approaches. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems typically drive peaks toward the 35–36°C range. The resolution source's specificity—requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary highs—means traders need familiarity with how Wunderground's Taipei Songshan station reports data, as discrepancies between observation tables and day-high summaries have historically caused disputes on weather-based contracts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.