Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s maximum temperature will be set by the highest reading logged at Songshan Airport on 9 August, with the market resolving from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the Day High & Low summary. At the moment, the crowd is pricing a very cool August outcome: roughly 3% for the contract’s current 28°C-type scenario, which is far below the mid-20s to low-30s summer norm traders usually associate with the city. [1]

That makes the current price look more bearish on heat than the broader climatology. August in Taipei is typically hot and humid, with published seasonal guides and forecast pages clustering around daily highs in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, while recent market commentary on comparable Polymarket temperature contracts has also tended to favour outcomes around 27–29°C when rain or thunderstorms are expected to limit solar heating. [1][6][17] On that basis, the present implied probability looks notably lower than a straightforward historical-summer read would suggest, unless persistent cloud and rain keep the airport observation below the usual August range. [1][14]

Traders should watch the Central Weather Administration’s short-range forecast and any updates from Weather Underground’s station observations through the resolution window, because late-day temperature peaks can still shift the final bucket. The key dependency is the actual Songshan Airport observation feed, not the headline forecast high, so any discrepancy between summary and daily table matters. Timeanddate’s forecast for Taipei on 9 August points to heavy rain, overcast conditions, and a 30°C high, which is consistent with a capped temperature profile but still leaves room for a readjustment if the city warms more than expected before the first 10 August datapoint is published. [10][13][14][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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