Highest temperature in Taipei on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical records for the station. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either avoiding the contract entirely or treating it as a placeholder pending clearer seasonal forecasting.

Taipei's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32–36°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The city experiences its most intense heat during mid-to-late July, when the Pacific high-pressure system dominates East Asia. Comparable July days at Songshan Airport have produced readings of 35.8°C (2023) and 36.5°C (2022), establishing a baseline for typical summer conditions. The current zero probability may reflect the market's early stage rather than genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration typically issues heat advisories 5–7 days before extreme conditions, providing traders with actionable signals by mid-July 2026. Monsoon patterns and typhoon activity in the Western Pacific remain the primary variables affecting temperature trajectories in late July; any tropical systems tracking toward Taiwan could suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and precipitation. Real-time atmospheric monitoring from the CWA website and regional pressure-system forecasts will offer the most reliable indicators for temperature-range positioning as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.