Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are assigning negligible likelihood to the uppermost temperature bracket, though the specific range thresholds are not detailed in available market documentation.

Taipei's June climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical records show that mid-June temperatures at Songshan Airport typically peak between 32–35°C, with extreme heat occasionally pushing toward 36–37°C during particularly intense subtropical pressure systems. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either a technical market condition or that traders are heavily weighted toward lower-than-typical outcomes for this specific date. Cross-platform comparison data from weather-focused prediction markets and meteorological consensus forecasts would clarify whether this represents genuine divergence or settlement ambiguity.

The critical dependency for this market is the monsoon pattern intensity during early-to-mid June 2026. Taiwan's southwest monsoon typically strengthens through June, potentially suppressing peak temperatures through increased cloud cover and moisture. Conversely, any ridge of high pressure establishing over the region would drive temperatures toward historical highs. Real-time monitoring of the Asian-Pacific weather outlook from late May onwards will signal whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal heat for the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.