Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The resolution source is Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location, which captures intraday temperature extremes across all hours.

Taipei's June climate sits at the threshold of the island's early monsoon season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at Songshan Airport. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this contract. Comparable June days at the same station over the past decade show relatively tight clustering around 30–31°C, with outliers above 33°C occurring in roughly 15–20% of years when subtropical high-pressure systems dominate. This historical distribution provides the baseline against which current market odds should be evaluated; the absence of meaningful divergence between prediction-market pricing and meteorological norms would indicate efficient pricing rather than mispricing.

Traders should monitor the 500-hectopascal geopotential height patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the Western Pacific during late May and early June 2026, as these drive whether a strong subtropical ridge establishes itself over Taiwan. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in early May, will signal whether anomalously warm conditions are expected. Typhoon activity in the preceding weeks could also suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation, though June typically precedes the peak typhoon season.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.