Highest temperature in Taipei on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine the settlement of this market. The crowd has assigned 0% probability to this contract, suggesting traders expect the actual high to fall outside the range specified by this particular option—though the exact threshold remains unspecified in the available market details. Resolution will depend on historical weather data from Wunderground, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date.

Taipei's June climate presents a narrow band of typical outcomes. Historical records from Songshan Airport show June highs cluster between 31–34°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 36°C or falling below 28°C. The 0% implied probability indicates the market's range sits either well above or below this seasonal norm, creating a binary assessment: either traders expect an unusually cool day or the threshold is set high enough to exclude most plausible scenarios. Comparable June days from 2015–2025 provide the most relevant baseline, though individual year variation remains substantial.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau's 10-day forecasts as June approaches, particularly any alerts for heat waves or monsoon activity that could suppress temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions affecting the Western Pacific in early 2026 may influence seasonal temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a hard deadline for any final adjustments based on morning weather reports from Taipei.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.