Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s **highest recorded temperature** on 1 August will determine this market, with settlement keyed to the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station reading in Celsius from Wunderground. The crowd is currently pricing **0% YES**, which is a clear outlier against the broader summer climatology: Tokyo’s August average high is around **31–34°C** in historical and forecast datasets, while recent August forecasts cluster in the low-to-mid 30s rather than the high 30s.[1][2][10][14]

That zero-priced view is difficult to square with comparable cases. Tokyo’s climate history shows August routinely producing very hot afternoons, including an all-time local maximum of **37.3°C** in August 1994, and the city’s long-run August daily highs tend to sit well above the market’s implied floor.[2] By contrast, platform-specific pricing on similar Tokyo temperature contracts has often concentrated heavily around the mid-30s Celsius, with one recent market framing **35°C** as the dominant outcome and citing official forecast alignment as support; that makes the present 0% YES reading look more like thin liquidity or stale pricing than a strong consensus on a cool day.[11]

The main trader catalysts are the live forecast trajectory, any late-morning heat build-up, and whether cloud cover or rain suppresses the day’s peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Tokyo’s August pattern is humid and heat-prone, so the key watchpoint is whether observed temperatures track forecast highs near the low 30s or overshoot into the mid-30s, which would keep the relevant contract bands in play.[1][10][14] Because the market resolves to Wunderground’s daily high for Haneda, the practical dependency is not just the citywide forecast but the station-specific reading and any late revisions on the data feed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.