Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 13 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state, though this represents an absence of committed positions rather than consensus certainty about the outcome range.

August temperatures in Tokyo typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing that mid-August readings at or near Haneda have exceeded 34°C in roughly 60% of years since 2010. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo record 37.5°C on 16 August, whilst 2022 peaked at 35.1°C on 13 August itself—a directly comparable precedent. These patterns suggest the market's zero probability assignment may underestimate the likelihood of higher temperature bands, particularly given that August 13 falls within Tokyo's seasonal peak heating window.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Pacific typhoon activity during late July and early August can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems from the continent drive extreme heat. Recent years have shown increasing volatility in August weather patterns across the Kanto region. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—creates a technical dependency on Wunderground's data collection protocols at Haneda, which occasionally diverges from other monitoring stations by 0.5–1.0°C.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.