Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds being exceeded during the morning hours of what is typically mid-summer in Japan.

August temperatures in Tokyo cluster around 28–32°C, with historical records showing extremes reaching 35–37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market may be pricing in a specific temperature range as highly unlikely, though without visibility on the exact threshold bands being offered, this signals either consensus around a narrow temperature band or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms typically show wider probability distributions across temperature ranges during summer months in major cities, indicating this market's current odds may reflect either thin liquidity or strong directional conviction.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the days preceding 14 August, as seasonal patterns and any developing weather systems will influence Haneda's recorded maximum. The resolution methodology's emphasis on Daily Observations rather than summary figures creates a technical dependency on Weather Underground's data capture protocols. Recent summer heat waves across East Asia have produced temperatures 2–4°C above historical norms, a factor that could shift probabilities if similar conditions develop in 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.