Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will determine this market's resolution. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences when automated station equipment logs peak readings outside standard reporting windows.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–36°C, with extreme heat events pushing toward 38–40°C. The 2010 heatwave saw Kumagaya reach 40.9°C, Japan's record, whilst Tokyo proper has peaked at 39.8°C (August 2013). The zero probability reading suggests traders may be awaiting clarification on which temperature bands the market offers, or the contract has attracted limited initial interest. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse given the settlement window extends to August 2026, leaving sportsbook lines and analyst consensus effectively absent at present.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly alerts for heat warnings or exceptional weather systems. Pacific typhoon activity in July–August can suppress peak temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems over the continent typically drive extreme readings. The specific reliance on Haneda Airport Station data—rather than central Tokyo or alternative monitoring points—matters; airport locations sometimes record marginally different peaks due to surface characteristics and instrumentation placement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.