Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 19 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing this as an extremely unlikely outcome, though the market structure itself—resolving to a temperature range rather than a specific figure—indicates resolution categories exist across a spectrum of plausible August highs.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda have historically ranged between 28°C and 37°C, with the station recording its highest August reading of 37.8°C in 2013. The 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity driving the odds to an unrealistic floor. Cross-platform comparison would reveal whether sportsbook weather derivatives or other prediction markets show divergent pricing; such discrepancies often signal either information asymmetry or technical factors like position concentration rather than genuine forecast disagreement.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña developments affecting Western Pacific weather patterns through mid-2026. Haneda's specific microclimate—influenced by bay proximity and urban heat effects—can produce readings 2–3°C higher than central Tokyo on peak days. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on Daily Observations rather than summary figures eliminates ambiguity but requires verification of which specific time window Wunderground uses for its highest recorded temperature on that date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.