Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 2 August will be settled by the highest reading at Haneda Airport, and the market is already pricing a very low chance of an extreme outcome, with the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES. That sits against a more conventional seasonal backdrop: Tokyo’s August average high is about 31°C, while broader city-history data show August has produced much hotter spikes in the past, including a record monthly high of 37.3°C in the long-run Tokyo series. [1][2][5]

For reading the current price, the useful comparison is between “normal August heat” and the tail risk of a very hot afternoon. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo points to highs mostly in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, with the month’s daily highs generally running from 82°F to 90°F, which would usually support a range well above the market’s implied zero, even if not necessarily into record territory. Japanese climate data also show late-July and early-August daily maximums can already be firmly in the mid-30s Celsius, so a single hot day at Haneda is not unusual in principle. [1][6][7]

The main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, any typhoon track changes, and cloud/rain timing around Tokyo Bay, all of which can quickly cap the afternoon high at Haneda. Because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, the market is especially sensitive to the morning-to-early-afternoon temperature path in Tokyo local time, rather than the full late-day peak; if convection, sea breezes or rain move in early, the highest reading may land materially lower than seasonal averages imply. Traders should therefore watch the latest airport-specific forecast and any Japanese Meteorological Agency updates alongside the weather history page used for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.