Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s Haneda Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 10 July 2026, with current forecasts suggesting highs between 26°C and 32°C. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for temperatures at or below 26°C, historical July data from the region shows that Haneda routinely experiences highs in the low 30s, often accompanied by rain or cloud cover that moderates extremes. Recent records from Tamba city, which hit 41.2°C, underscore Japan’s capacity for heat, yet Haneda’s coastal location typically keeps temperatures more restrained than inland zones.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s real-time observations and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, which can significantly alter the day’s peak. The current market tight clustering around 29–31°C reflects a narrow forecast envelope just two days out, with the frontrunner outcome being 31°C at 38% probability. Analyst consensus from Lines.com notes thin volume and a fragmented bracket structure, suggesting that Japan Meteorological Agency data will be the decisive factor. Recent weather reports from the Met Office indicate a maximum daytime temperature of 32°C for Haneda, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures well above the 26°C threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.