Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against a set of predefined Celsius ranges. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be published or have not yet engaged with this contract. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on the settlement date itself.

Tokyo's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Over the past two decades, mid-July highs at Haneda have ranged between 32–36°C, with extreme readings above 37°C occurring in roughly one in five years during this period. The 2023 heatwave pushed temperatures to 35–36°C in mid-July, whilst cooler years have seen highs around 32–33°C. This historical clustering suggests that whichever temperature bands the market ultimately offers will likely cluster around the 33–36°C zone, making the current zero probability a placeholder rather than a genuine market signal.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks. Pacific high-pressure systems and potential typhoon activity in the region will be the primary drivers of deviation from seasonal norms. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern summer could shift baseline expectations, though such patterns are usually well-established by late June. Once range options appear, early-season comparison across other prediction-market platforms and weather-focused betting sites may reveal meaningful divergences in how traders price tail-risk scenarios above 37°C.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.