Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its mid-July heat peak today, with the highest temperature at Haneda Airport set to determine the outcome of a weather contract settling at noon UTC. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting a near-total consensus that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, while Polymarket data indicates 32°C is the frontrunner outcome at 100% probability [1].

Historical July highs in Tokyo typically cluster between 30°C and 35°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower peaks than central stations due to coastal exposure. In comparable years, such as 2023 and 2024, mid-July highs reached 33°C and 34°C respectively, making a sub-30°C outcome statistically rare unless a significant cool front intervenes. The current 0% pricing suggests the market views the traded range as implausibly low relative to these established patterns.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 06:00 UTC daily forecast and real-time surface observations from Haneda, as any sudden shift in wind direction from the Pacific could alter the day’s peak. Wunderground, the designated resolution source, updates hourly and will provide the definitive record once the settlement window closes [1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled before noon, leaving current atmospheric conditions as the primary catalyst for the final temperature reading.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.