Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 27 July will be determined by the day’s highest reading at Haneda Airport, so the contract is really a bet on whether the city posts a normal summer peak, a mild day, or a hot spell before the settlement cut-off. With the crowd price at **0% YES**, the market is effectively saying the listed outcome range is seen as extremely unlikely, although no sportsbook line is available here to compare directly and there is no analyst consensus supplied for this exact contract.

Historical context matters because late-July Tokyo is usually one of the hottest periods of the year, and Haneda’s daily maximums can still swing materially depending on cloud cover, sea breeze, rainfall, and typhoon influence. That means a zero-implied price is better read as a market anomaly or a very narrow contract definition than as a straightforward temperature forecast; in comparable weather markets, probabilities often reset quickly once the forecast range tightens within 24 to 72 hours of settlement.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any short-dated temperature market: local forecast updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency, any change in tropical storm tracks south of Honshu, and the timing of sea-breeze suppression or early-day cloud cover over Tokyo Bay. Traders should also watch whether the Wunderground Haneda station feed is updated normally on the day, because this market resolves off that specific station’s recorded high rather than a broader Tokyo average.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.