Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against a specific Celsius range. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity on this specific contract. Given that the settlement window closes at midday on the resolution date itself, traders have limited time to adjust positions once actual conditions emerge.

Tokyo's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical highs typically clustering between 34–37°C at Haneda. The Japan Meteorological Agency's 30-year climate normals show late July as the warmest period in the city's calendar, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 38°C. This seasonal predictability usually anchors temperature markets toward the middle of their range distributions. The 0% reading on this contract suggests either that the crowd has concentrated probability mass elsewhere in the range structure, or that very few positions have been opened across the full set of temperature brackets.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecasts from mid-July onwards, which typically gain accuracy within two weeks of the target date. Heat-wave warnings issued by local authorities in late July would signal potential upside movement toward higher temperature brackets. Atmospheric patterns affecting East Asia—particularly the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity—will shape whether conditions remain within the historical norm or push toward more extreme readings. Wunderground's historical data feed will be the definitive source, requiring verification of the specific station identifier (RJTT) to ensure consistent measurement methodology.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.