Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a single snapshot that determines the outcome of a weather-based prediction contract. The current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range, likely below 26°C. This stark divergence contrasts with Lines.com, where the same event carries a 35% implied probability for hitting 26°C, and Bitget Wallet, which recently resolved a similar July 2 Tokyo event at 24°C with $24K in volume. Analyst consensus remains split, with some forecasting highs near 28–30°C based on historical July averages, while others caution that cloud cover and humidity may suppress peaks.

Historical data frames this uncertainty: Tokyo’s July average high is 28.7°C, with humidity reaching 77.6%, and the hot season typically spans from late June to mid-September, averaging daily highs above 79°F [5][8]. Yet Japan’s record heat of 41.2°C in Tamba City in July 2025 [7] shows extreme volatility, while recent forecasts for Haneda in July 2026 suggest daily highs between 76° and 91°F (24–33°C) [4]. Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily weather bulletins and real-time Wunderground updates for Haneda, as sudden shifts in cloud density or wind patterns can alter peak temperatures within hours. No major climate announcements are scheduled, but the agency’s weekly heat advisories—often issued when temperatures approach 35°C—could signal emerging trends [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.