Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event in question is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. While one prediction market currently implies a 0% chance for any specific outcome, this diverges sharply from cross-platform consensus. Polymarket assigns a 52.4% probability to 24°C being the peak, with 25°C as the next likely bin at 33%, whereas Lines.com estimates a 38% chance for 27°C. This significant spread in implied odds suggests traders are weighing different climate models rather than a single dominant forecast, creating a notable divergence between platforms that a cross-platform odds-comparison would highlight immediately.

Historical data frames this volatility, as July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 27°C and 30°C, with overnight lows rarely dropping below 21°C. The Met Office forecasts a maximum of 30°C for the Haneda area, yet recent record-breaking heat in Japan, including a 41.2°C reading in Tamba city, demonstrates the potential for extreme spikes that standard models might miss. This context explains why the market-implied probability is tightly clustered around 24°C to 27°C rather than a single outlier, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty rather than a definitive prediction.

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather schedules for cloud cover and humidity, as these factors directly influence nocturnal radiative cooling and daytime heating. Cloudy conditions reduce cooling, elevating overnight lows, while scattered showers can limit daytime peaks by enhancing downward longwave radiation. The Japan Meteorological Agency has noted recent record warmth, and JAL flight information warns of potential delays on 7 July due to bad weather, indicating active atmospheric instability that could serve as a catalyst for temperature deviations. These dependencies mean the final resolution will hinge on real-time meteorological shifts rather than static seasonal averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.