Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against a series of defined ranges. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not positioning for any particular outcome, which is atypical for a weather market with a fixed settlement date less than eighteen months away. This absence of conviction contrasts sharply with typical prediction-market behaviour around meteorological events, where seasonal patterns and historical data usually anchor meaningful probability mass.

Tokyo's June temperatures are highly consistent by global standards. Historical records from Haneda show June highs cluster between 26–28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 32°C or falling below 23°C. The 0% reading across all outcome ranges indicates either a technical issue with market initialisation or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately contain the recorded high. Comparable weather markets on major exchanges typically show distributed probabilities reflecting seasonal norms and recent climate trends, even when settlement is months away.

The resolution mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather database for Haneda Airport Station, a reliable but occasionally delayed source for Japanese meteorological data. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any seasonal anomaly alerts or El Niño–Southern Oscillation updates that might shift expected temperature ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 8 June, creating a tight window for final data verification against Wunderground's recorded figures.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.