Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against predefined Celsius ranges. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are assigning negligible likelihood to whichever upper temperature bracket this market represents—a positioning that warrants scrutiny given Tokyo's late-May climatology and the specificity of settlement methodology.

Tokyo's May temperatures have historically ranged between 15°C and 30°C, with late-May highs typically clustering around 25–28°C based on thirty-year averages. The 0% probability across prediction markets contrasts with sportsbook weather derivatives, which rarely price any single-day outcome at absolute extremes unless the range itself is implausibly narrow or positioned at statistical tails. Historical May records at Haneda exceed 32°C, though such readings remain uncommon. The divergence between near-zero market pricing and baseline climatological frequency suggests either the market is pricing an exceptionally high temperature threshold, or traders are anchoring to recent cooler patterns rather than seasonal norms.

Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed for Haneda Airport Station on the specified date. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the days preceding 26 May, as significant weather system movements—tropical air masses or high-pressure ridges—could shift actual temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, leaving no buffer for late-day temperature spikes, which occasionally occur in Tokyo during late spring.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.