Highest temperature in Toronto on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport is currently recording 24°C as the city faces an active extreme heat warning for the Greater Toronto Area, with Environment Canada urging residents to hydrate and seek cooling centres [3][4]. This live weather event underscores the volatility of mid-July temperatures in the region, where a public health advisory was issued just one year ago on July 16, 2025, for extreme heat and poor air quality [1]. Historical precedents show that July 16 has frequently delivered temperatures well above 30°C, with a similar market for July 13, 2026, already pricing 33°C at 100% probability, suggesting the current 0% implied probability for any specific high range on July 16 may be a significant outlier compared to recent seasonal performance [2].

Traders monitoring this contract should watch Environment Canada’s daily heat advisory updates and the specific timing of peak afternoon temperatures, which typically occur between 14:00 and 16:00 local time. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the Toronto Pearson station, meaning any discrepancy between local news reports and the official station log could create arbitrage opportunities before the 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z deadline [1]. While sportsbooks rarely offer direct odds on single-day temperature ranges, the divergence between the 100% certainty of 33°C on July 13 and the 0% probability assigned to outcomes on July 16 indicates a potential mispricing in the prediction market relative to the analyst consensus on mid-summer heat trends in southern Ontario [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.