Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event in question is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market views the contract as either illiquid or the resolution criteria as unmet for the listed ranges. This stands in stark divergence from historical patterns where June 25 has frequently produced highs exceeding 25°C, with recent records showing peaks near 36°C.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as an anomaly rather than a rational assessment. On 25 June 2025, Toronto-Pearson recorded its highest low temperature for that date since 1938 at 22.9°C, while extreme heat events in the region have previously pushed temperatures to 35.8°C, as noted in a recent Environment Canada report [3]. June monthly averages for Pearson typically range from 68°F to 83°F (20°C to 28°C) [7], making a complete absence of heat outcomes statistically improbable unless the market resolution ranges are misaligned with actual climatic expectations.

Traders should monitor Environment Canada’s daily heat warnings and the National Weather Service time-series data for CYYZ, which tracks temperature and dew point fluctuations [4]. A recent heat warning issued for the Greater Toronto Area, persisting until Tuesday evening, indicates active thermal stress that could elevate June 25 readings [3]. Additionally, the current weather forecast for 25 June shows a risk of thunderstorms with a high of 25°C [1], providing a tangible catalyst that contradicts the market’s implied zero probability for any heat-related resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.