Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Toronto's highest temperature will be recorded at Pearson International Airport and fall into one of several defined ranges. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders currently expect the outcome to fall outside the upper temperature brackets being priced, though the settlement window remains open until midday on the resolution date itself.

Toronto's May temperatures typically range between 15°C and 22°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The city has recorded May 25 highs as low as 12°C and as high as 29°C across different years, establishing a wide baseline for seasonal variability. This historical spread explains why prediction markets on specific daily temperature ranges require careful calibration; a single unusually warm or cool air mass can shift outcomes dramatically. Current crowd positioning at 0% for what appears to be the highest temperature bracket suggests either conservative expectations for that particular range or strong conviction toward cooler outcomes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Environment Canada's extended forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of high-pressure systems or Arctic air patterns that could suppress temperatures. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and broader spring weather patterns will influence whether warm continental air reaches southern Ontario. Since Wunderground's historical data from Pearson serves as the authoritative resolution source, any discrepancies between airport readings and other Toronto-area stations will not affect settlement. The settlement window's noon cutoff on 25 May means final temperature readings must be confirmed by that time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.