Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature band will contain the highest reading at Warsaw Chopin Airport on 27 July 2026. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder contract pending fuller market development.

Warsaw's July climate typically peaks between 23–26°C, though extremes have reached 30°C during heat waves. Historical records from the past decade show late July temperatures clustering in the mid-20s range, with only occasional spikes above 28°C. The 0% reading reflects standard market behaviour for weather contracts in their early stages rather than conviction that no temperature will be recorded; comparable July markets across European capitals show similar initial probability distributions before seasonal patterns become clearer.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly any Atlantic pressure systems or heat dome formations that might push Polish temperatures above seasonal norms. The Polish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF medium-range forecasts will become actionable roughly two weeks before settlement. Current divergence between this market and typical sportsbook weather derivatives (which rarely quote specific daily highs) reflects prediction markets' granular approach; meaningful probability shifts will likely emerge once forecasters move from seasonal outlooks to deterministic 10-day models.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.