Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington Airport’s highest temperature on 1 August is typically a cool-season figure rather than anything close to summer warmth, and that is why the market is currently priced at **0% YES**: the contract resolves to the day’s top reading at Wellington Intl Airport Station, with the relevant comparison being against a temperature range, not a single exact decimal. Long-run August climate data for Wellington point to average highs around **12°C to 13°C**, with daily highs commonly near **12°C** and monthly extremes still usually well below the mid-teens; one historical source puts Wellington’s August average high at **13.8°C** and notes a record monthly maximum of **26.0°C** for the broader weather history, underscoring how far above normal a genuinely hot winter day would need to be.[2][10][11][13]

On a cross-platform read, sportsbook-style weather pricing would usually lean on the forecasted daily maximum and the probability of a sharp warm anomaly, while prediction markets tend to discount that kind of tail event more aggressively when the calendar is deep in winter. The meaningful comparison is between the contract’s 0% crowd-implied chance and the climatology-based view: analysts and historical weather normals suggest a low ceiling, but not an absolute impossibility, because Wellington can still produce brief föhn-like warmth under the right synoptic setup.[2][13][14] The main catalysts are the latest MetService and Wunderground forecast updates into the airport observation window, plus any wind shifts or clearing trends that could lift the afternoon high; with settlement tied to the station’s recorded maximum before 12:00 UTC on 1 August, traders should watch the final model runs and airport-specific observations rather than city-wide forecasts.[14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.