Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026, with the market asking which range that reading will fall into. The settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table for the airport station, prioritising that source over summary figures if discrepancies emerge. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders currently assess no meaningful likelihood of the highest temperature falling within the specified range, though the actual range thresholds are not detailed in available market documentation.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 10–13°C during this month. Comparable August days at the airport station show considerable variability; the 30-year average high hovers around 11.5°C, but individual days regularly deviate by 3–5°C either side depending on frontal systems and wind patterns. The current zero probability may reflect either an extremely narrow or unusually high temperature threshold baked into the market's range options, or reflect early-stage liquidity where no traders have yet positioned substantially.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService forecasts and NIWA outlooks released in the week preceding 14 August, as these will clarify whether anomalous warmth or cold is expected. Southern Ocean pressure systems and the strength of westerly winds during that specific week will be the primary drivers of actual temperatures. Any significant El Niño or La Niña signal active in mid-2026 could shift baseline expectations, though August sits outside peak seasonal sensitivity windows for those patterns affecting New Zealand.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.