Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 16 August 2026, with the market currently pricing all temperature ranges at zero probability. This represents an extreme disconnect from typical weather prediction patterns, suggesting either a data-loading error or an absence of meaningful trader activity on this contract ahead of the 2026 southern hemisphere winter.

Wellington's August temperatures historically cluster between 7–13°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 15°C during the coldest month. The city's maritime climate produces volatile daily swings; the airport station's records show occasional outliers driven by föhn winds descending from the Rimutaka Range. Comparable August markets on prediction platforms have typically attracted modest activity, with ranges between 10–14°C capturing the bulk of probability mass. The current zero-probability state across all bins is inconsistent with this historical baseline and suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to reflect consensus weather expectations.

Traders should monitor MetService and NIWA forecasts released in early August 2026, which will provide the first reliable 10-day outlook for that specific date. The resolution methodology—drawing from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between these data sources have occasionally triggered disputes on comparable weather contracts. Any significant atmospheric pattern shift, such as an early spring warm front or blocking high-pressure system, would materially alter the probability distribution across temperature bins.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.