Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest daily temperature on 19 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Wellington's August climate sits firmly in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 10–14°C. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders expect the actual high to fall outside whichever temperature bracket this market has established as the "YES" resolution band. Cross-platform comparison reveals no active sportsbook lines for this contract; traditional weather betting remains concentrated on major northern-hemisphere events. Analyst consensus from the New Zealand MetService, last updated in their seasonal outlook, projects below-average temperatures across the lower North Island during August 2026, which would reinforce expectations of cooler-than-normal conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService forecasts released in the fortnight preceding 19 August, particularly any warnings of unusual warm air masses or föhn wind events that could drive temperatures above seasonal norms. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical dependency worth verifying against official NIWA records. Any significant divergence between prediction-market odds and MetService's official forecast for that specific date would signal potential mispricing, though the current 0% reading suggests the market has already priced in strong confidence in below-range outcomes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.