Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific range, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood of a heatwave occurring in Wellington during its coldest month. Historical data confirms July is Wellington’s chilliest period, with average highs only reaching 53°F (11.7°C) and average lows at 45°F (7.2°C)[3]. While Wellington (Kelburn) recently hit its all-time maximum of 30.3°C, this occurred in a summer heatwave, not mid-winter, and no recorded July temperature in the city has approached such extremes[1]. The coldest July day ever recorded in New Zealand was −8.6°C on 1 July 1995, underscoring the typical winter severity rather than heat potential[6].

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates from NIWA and Wunderground for any anomalous southerly wind shifts or unseasonal temperature spikes, though such events are statistically negligible in July. Recent news from NIWA highlights that while heatwaves can push Wellington to record highs, they are confined to summer months and do not recur in winter[1]. No scheduled climate announcements or weather model revisions currently suggest a deviation from typical July patterns. The resolution source, Wunderground, will log the highest temperature across all times on 1 July, but given the absence of any historical precedent for July heat in Wellington, the market’s 0% probability aligns with empirical reality. Analyst consensus remains firm: winter in Wellington is cold, not hot, and the odds of a temperature range exceeding 15°C are effectively zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.