Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at the international airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. July falls within Wellington's winter season in the Southern Hemisphere, when daytime highs typically range between 8°C and 13°C, though occasional warm fronts can push temperatures several degrees higher. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing this as a binary outcome with no meaningful probability mass assigned to any specific temperature band, which is unusual for a weather market where historical variance typically permits multiple plausible outcomes.

Wellington's winter weather patterns show considerable year-to-year variability. Over the past two decades, July maximum temperatures have ranged from below 5°C during cold snaps to above 16°C during anomalous warm spells, with the interquartile range spanning roughly 9–12°C. The airport's exposed coastal location means wind patterns and pressure systems can shift temperatures rapidly within a single day. Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea during late June and early July 2026, as these drive synoptic-scale weather patterns affecting the Wellington region. MetService, New Zealand's national meteorological service, publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks before the target date; these forecasts typically carry meaningful predictive power for temperature ranges in the week preceding resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.