Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature for that calendar day, with the actual figure settling into one of several pre-defined Celsius ranges. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either heavily concentrated in a single temperature band or treating this as an outlier event with negligible likelihood of extreme heat.

Wellington's late autumn climate in May typically produces maximum temperatures between 13–16°C, with historical records showing the airport station rarely exceeds 18°C during this month. The 0% reading across platforms indicates the crowd has effectively ruled out the highest temperature ranges entirely, concentrating conviction in the moderate bands. This consensus reflects May's consistent meteorological patterns in the southern hemisphere's late autumn, where cold fronts and maritime influence keep daily maxima well below summer peaks. Cross-platform comparison would reveal whether sportsbooks or specialist weather-prediction services diverge meaningfully from this assessment, though such divergence is unlikely given the straightforward seasonal baseline.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea during late May, as these influence whether high-pressure systems deliver warmer-than-average conditions to the Wellington region. The MetService forecast issued in the week preceding 26 May will provide the most actionable catalyst, signalling whether any unusual warm air mass is tracking towards the region. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical data feed from Wellington International Airport, which typically finalises within 24–48 hours of the observation period.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.