Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 20 August 2026, with the market seeking to identify which temperature bracket will contain the highest reading recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution methodology or have not yet engaged substantively with this contract. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a tight window for final temperature observation before the market locks.

Wuhan's August climatology provides the essential benchmark. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs in mid-August consistently ranging between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks exceeding 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed temperatures to 39°C; more recently, August 2022 saw sustained readings above 35°C across multiple days. These precedents suggest the market's 0% probability reflects either a specific temperature range that sits outside typical August patterns or insufficient liquidity rather than genuine consensus that extreme heat is impossible.

The resolution mechanism itself warrants trader attention. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the summary high-low display—will determine the outcome, introducing potential discrepancies between casual weather reports and the formal station record. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and Wuhan-specific weather models in the weeks preceding the date, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions will shape whether temperatures cluster toward historical norms or deviate significantly. The absence of any meaningful cross-platform odds comparison currently reflects minimal trading activity on this contract.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.