Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's lowest daily temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution depends on official publication of the "Absolute Daily Min" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

July represents the height of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when overnight lows typically range between 26–28°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily minimum temperatures during mid-July rarely fall below 25°C, with the 30-year average around 26.5°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the lowest temperature to fall outside the lowest available range bracket, though this may reflect incomplete market participation rather than genuine consensus. Comparable July dates show consistent clustering in the 25–28°C band, with sub-25°C readings occurring in fewer than 5% of cases over recent decades.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding 13 July, as these remain the primary drivers of temperature variance during the monsoon period. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly; their June 2026 forecast will provide the most recent guidance on expected conditions. Humidity levels and cloud cover patterns during the settlement date itself will determine whether overnight temperatures track toward the seasonal mean or deviate significantly. No scheduled weather events or astronomical factors create unusual dependencies for this specific date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.