World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup can still produce penalty misses in normal play, but the market is pricing the threshold as unlikely, with the crowd at 4% YES. That is consistent with the event structure: only penalties in regular time, stoppage time or extra time count, while shootout kicks are excluded, so most of the variance comes from a relatively small number of in-match spot kicks rather than the more common knockout tiebreaks.[8]

Historically, World Cup penalties are decisive but not frequent enough to make a high miss count commonplace. Messi and Harry Kane have already been used by traders as reminders that even elite takers can miss on the biggest stage, while Opta’s World Cup shootout data shows conversion rates can vary sharply by round, underscoring how context matters even before shootouts are stripped out of the contract.[3][7] The broader historical record also shows only 35 World Cup shoot-outs since the competition began, which helps explain why analysts usually treat large totals of missed penalties as a low-probability outcome rather than a base case.[2]

Cross-platform, the key watchpoint is whether sportsbook prices and prediction-market odds diverge further once the tournament schedule and referee appointments are set, because those factors influence penalty frequency through match tempo and disciplinary risk. FIFA’s own tournament communications will be the cleanest source for official match completion data if fixtures are disrupted, and any early sign of a penalty-heavy knockout phase could move this market quickly despite the current 4% crowd price.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.