Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the current YES line suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely anticipating a value either significantly higher or lower than the bracketed threshold. This zero-probability stance is unusual for a mid-summer date in one of China’s hottest cities, where daily highs routinely exceed 30°C.

Historical data from Wunderground shows Chengdu Shuangliu frequently records temperatures between 32°C and 36°C in mid-July, with 2023 and 2024 both seeing peaks near 35°C. The current 0% implied probability diverges sharply from this pattern, implying either a mispriced range or an expectation of anomalous cooling, perhaps from an incoming rain system. Sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts typically align with historical averages, making this prediction-market outlier a notable arbitrage signal for cross-platform comparison.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast for Chengdu, particularly any announcements of cold fronts or heavy precipitation scheduled for 15–16 July. A recent report from the South China Morning Post noted early July monsoon activity could suppress temperatures across Sichuan, though such effects are often short-lived. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for Shuangliu, so real-time station updates and cloud-cover data will be critical catalysts before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.