Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event in question is the peak air temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date falling just before the city’s official hot season begins on 20 June. Historical data confirms Chongqing is one of China’s most extreme heat zones, with 149 days since 1951 exceeding 40°C and a record high of 43.2°C in August 2022[7][9]. While the current hot season average daily high sits above 85°F (29.4°C), the 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on this specific contract suggests the market expects a temperature far below typical June peaks, possibly due to unseasonal cloud cover or rain forecasts not yet reflected in broader odds[2].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s movement over the Sichuan Basin, as recent patterns show this ridge driving peak temperatures toward 31–32°C when it pushes back over the region[4]. A key catalyst is the official weather schedule from Wunderground, which will resolve the market at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, and any sudden announcements regarding regional cooling systems or monsoon activity that could suppress temperatures[5]. Recent news from August 2025 highlights how heatwaves in Chongqing can top 40°C, yet the divergence between this historical intensity and the current 0% market probability indicates a significant mismatch with analyst consensus on June 26 conditions[8]. Cross-platform odds on similar contracts, such as the 29°C outcome on June 16, contrast sharply with the near-zero expectation here, underscoring a unique market anomaly for this specific date[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.