Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Hong Kong's maximum temperature will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement will depend on the absolute daily maximum reading in degrees Celsius, rounded to one decimal place. Current crowd pricing implies near-zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either thin liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will ultimately resolve.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The Observatory's thirty-year climate normals show a mean daily maximum of approximately 30°C for early June, though individual years regularly deviate by 2–3 degrees depending on monsoon positioning and tropical systems. Reviewing past June 4th records would reveal whether this date has historically tracked toward the warmer or cooler end of the seasonal range, providing calibration for assessing which temperature bands merit non-trivial probability allocation.

Traders should monitor the South China Sea monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June 2026, as these systems materially shift Hong Kong's temperature profile. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; convergence between ensemble models on a particular temperature regime would likely shift market odds away from the current flat distribution. Settlement cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the Daily Extract for 4 June, typically within days of the observation date, creating a known resolution timeline but no early-closing mechanism.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.