Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, with resolution contingent on the Observatory's official release of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

May temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with the month marking the transition into the pre-monsoon season. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily maxima in late May average around 31–32°C, though readings occasionally exceed 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability currently implied suggests traders view this as a baseline reference point rather than a genuine forecast, reflecting the market's nascent stage rather than conviction about temperature outcomes. Comparable prediction markets on weather events show meaningful divergence between crowd probabilities and meteorological consensus when settlement dates lie more than twelve months ahead, as traders often discount distant events or lack sufficient information to calibrate probabilities accurately.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any advisories issued in the weeks preceding 31 May. The Hong Kong Meteorological Society publishes monthly outlooks that incorporate sea-surface temperatures and monsoon progression patterns. Late May weather in Hong Kong is heavily influenced by the onset of the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, both of which remain difficult to predict with precision beyond a fortnight. Real-time tracking of upper-air patterns and pressure systems in early June will provide the most actionable signals for refining temperature range estimates.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.