Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either confident the market's threshold lies above plausible May conditions, or the contract structure itself carries structural disadvantages relative to comparable weather derivatives.

Paris in late May typically experiences highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 26–28°C. Historical records show temperatures exceeding 30°C on 31 May are exceptionally rare; the station's long-term data indicates such extremes occur roughly once per decade during this calendar date. The current zero probability across prediction markets contrasts with modest non-zero odds sometimes quoted on European weather-betting platforms for similar May-end temperature thresholds, suggesting either the market's upper range is genuinely implausible or traders are discounting tail-risk scenarios that meteorological models assign marginal probability.

Traders monitoring this contract should track late-May 2026 European weather forecasts as the settlement date approaches, particularly any Atlantic high-pressure systems that might drive continental warming. The Météo-France extended outlook and ECMWF ensemble models will provide the most reliable guidance 10–14 days before settlement. Any significant heatwave warning issued for northern France in the final week of May would materially shift implied probabilities, though such events remain statistically uncommon for this specific date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.