Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 4 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical data archive. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal engagement with this particular contract.

Early June in Seoul typically falls within the transition to summer monsoon season, with historical highs averaging 24–28°C at Incheon. The 0% probability across prediction markets contrasts sharply with the meteorological baseline—no temperature outcome should be genuinely impossible on this date. This divergence may reflect low liquidity rather than genuine consensus that certain ranges are ruled out. Comparable weather markets on established platforms show wider probability distributions across temperature bands, indicating the current market may be undercalibrated or thinly traded.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any early monsoon activity or heat wave alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift June temperatures meaningfully above or below the 30-year average. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Wunderground's specific station data means localised conditions at Incheon matter more than Seoul city centre readings, which occasionally diverge by 2–3°C depending on urban heat effects and proximity to coastal influences.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.