Highest temperature in Wellington on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 is being priced at 12°C, with the market assigning a 100% implied probability to that outcome, while any “YES” bet on alternative ranges sits at 0%. This reflects a tight consensus around current forecasts, which position 12°C as the most probable high for the day at Wellington International Airport (NZWN), aligning with Polymarket’s leading line [1]. Historical mid-July highs in Wellington typically range between 6°C and 14°C, with 12°C falling squarely in the median of recent comparable cases, making the current pricing statistically grounded rather than speculative [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from MetService New Zealand, the official resolver for NZWN temperature data, as well as Wunderground’s daily history feed, which the market uses for settlement [2]. Any divergence between MetService’s published maximum and Wunderground’s recorded value could trigger resolution disputes, though revisions are only accepted until the first datapoint for 21 July is published [1]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, the final hour of trading will be critical, especially if wind shifts or cloud cover alter the day’s peak temperature in the final hours. Current BBC Weather data shows 15°C with strong south-south-westerly winds, but this is a live reading, not the daily maximum [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.