Netanyahu out by 2027?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister faces scrutiny across multiple timeframes, with the current 44% crowd-implied probability suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether he will announce resignation or be removed by end-2026. The Israeli political system has seen three previous prime ministerial departures since 2009—Ehud Olmert (2008, corruption charges), Benjamin Netanyahu's own first exit (1999, electoral defeat), and Naftali Bennett (2022, coalition collapse)—establishing precedent for both forced and voluntary exits within two-to-three-year windows. Netanyahu's current coalition government, formed in December 2022, remains fragile; the departure of any coalition partner could trigger either his removal or a forced announcement of stepping down, though Israeli governments have historically weathered multiple coalition crises before collapse.

The immediate catalysts centre on three overlapping pressures: his ongoing trial on corruption charges (bribery, fraud, breach of trust), with verdicts potentially arriving in 2025; the stability of his coalition partners, particularly the far-right Religious Zionism faction; and any escalation in regional conflict that destabilises domestic politics. Recent reporting from Reuters and the Times of Israel indicates coalition tensions remain high, though no imminent government collapse appears scheduled. The market's 44% probability sits notably higher than historical base rates for sitting Israeli prime ministers departing within a two-year window, suggesting traders are pricing in elevated political risk from either judicial proceedings or coalition fragmentation rather than treating Netanyahu's position as secure.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.