# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its first 24 hours of publication. The prediction market currently implies a 71% probability that this figure will exceed a specific threshold, with settlement contingent on actual view counts from his channel analytics. If no video materialises by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.

MrBeast has consistently ranked among YouTube's fastest-growing creators, with recent uploads regularly surpassing 50 million views within 24 hours. His November 2024 video "I Gave Away $1,000,000" accumulated approximately 80 million views in the opening day, whilst his August 2024 "$456,000 Squid Game" video reached roughly 75 million. These benchmarks suggest the current 71% implied probability reflects confidence in a substantial first-day performance, though the exact threshold triggering settlement remains material to interpreting the odds. Comparable high-profile creators like SET India and Zee Entertainment typically see more modest day-one figures, positioning MrBeast's trajectory as an outlier within the platform's ecosystem.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and content format, as video length, release timing, and subject matter influence initial velocity. His recent pattern favours high-production-value challenge videos released during peak viewing hours. Any announcement regarding collaboration, format change, or extended hiatus could alter baseline expectations. The settlement window closing in June 2026 provides sufficient runway for multiple uploads, though the market's lowest-bracket default creates asymmetric risk if posting activity ceases entirely.

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.