Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s noon ET Binance close on 4 August is a narrow spot-price event, not a broad end-of-day view, so small intraday moves can decide the contract. On the information available here, the crowd price of **0% YES** contrasts sharply with third-party market pages that still show a live expectation clustered in the mid-60,000s, including a Paridesk range of **62,000–64,000** and analyst-style forecasts around **66,675** for the date, which would point to a materially higher settlement zone than the market is implying.[2][16]

That gap matters because comparable Bitcoin date-specific markets tend to trade on the path into the fixing, not on the year-ahead outlook. Recent price references in the low-60,000s from Investing.com, YCharts and other trackers suggest BTC has been trading well below the six-figure levels seen on some retail price pages, making a noon ET print above or below any chosen bracket heavily dependent on the next session’s volatility rather than structural long-term consensus.[3][7][13] In cross-platform terms, the current prediction-market read looks far more bearish than the broader analyst range and even the loose retail spot quotes.

Traders should watch any catalyst that can move BTC between the Asian, European and US sessions before the 12:00 ET candle, especially macro data, Federal Reserve commentary, and ETF-flow headlines, because those are the kinds of inputs that can reprice Bitcoin quickly ahead of a one-minute Binance close. The most useful comparison is the tension between a near-zero market-implied chance on the contract and outside price references that still anchor Bitcoin far above the lower strike bands, which leaves the settlement sensitive to even modest follow-through selling or a short-covering bounce.[2][12][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.