"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Toy Story 5 is opening in cinemas with domestic weekend forecasts clustered around a franchise-record launch, but the market’s 7% YES implies traders are treating a bracketed outcome as relatively unlikely unless the film clears the very top end of expectations. Variety and Deadline both reported tracking in the $140 million to $150 million range, while other analysts pushed higher, with one forecast at $158 million to $180 million and Barron’s citing $150 million to $175 million; that spread matters because the contract resolves from The Numbers’ final three-day domestic total, not studio estimates.[1][3][4][7] The current price therefore sits well below the mainstream critical consensus on a huge opening, but not so low as to rule out volatility if actual walk-up demand underperforms or overperforms previews.

The clearest comparables are Toy Story 4’s $120 million opening and Toy Story 3’s $110 million, both well below the current tracking range, so the market is effectively asking whether this sequel can translate franchise strength into a meaningfully larger launch than prior entries.[1] Deadline’s report also noted that the North American summer box office had already reached nearly $1.6 billion, the strongest run since 2019, which supports the idea of a receptive market for event releases.[3] Traders should watch Friday and Saturday hold, any late-day theatre expansion or session-count changes, and whether Disney’s preview numbers convert into broad family turnout rather than front-loaded fan demand; early commentary has already emphasised strong reviews and Father’s Day timing as possible tailwinds.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.