July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

US consumer prices for the 12 months to July 2026 will be set by the BLS CPI report due on 12 August, and the current 2% “yes” price implies the market is effectively treating a sub-2% annual print as a very low-probability tail outcome. That stands in sharp contrast to the latest official reading: CPI rose 3.5% year on year in June after 4.2% in May, while core CPI was 2.6%, so this contract is asking traders to price in a far steeper disinflation than the most recent data have shown.[6][18][15]

The historical frame matters because the recent path has been volatile rather than one-way. June delivered the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, but forecasters still see inflation staying well above 2% in the near term: the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasting tools have pointed to headline inflation around 3.3%-3.9% for July, while the Philadelphia Fed’s Q2 survey had professional forecasters expecting 2026 headline CPI to average 3.5% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.[3][14][2] In prediction-market terms, that leaves this contract priced much lower than the broad economist consensus implied by recent surveys and nowcasts.

For traders, the main catalysts are the intervening CPI and labour-market releases before the August publication date, plus any shifts in energy prices, services inflation, or shelter trends that feed into the July index. July’s BLS release will be the settlement source, and the exact timestamp is fixed: the report is scheduled for 12 August at 8:30 am ET.[15][17] Recent June CPI data also showed markets reacting sharply to a cooler-than-expected inflation print, underlining how a single monthly release can reset expectations quickly ahead of the July settlement.[4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track July Inflation US - Annual across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.