Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

1WIN and Butterfly meet in a best-of-three playoff match in the NODWIN Clutch Series, with the contract currently pricing the tie at a 50% yes-equivalent after an unresolved 50-50 benchmark on the market page. That is materially below the kind of clear favourite pricing seen in comparable 1WIN-Butterfly meetings: in their CCT Europe Series #5 playoff match on 30 July, external match odds made 1WIN roughly a 71% favourite, yet Butterfly won 2-1[9]. Liquipedia also shows Butterfly entered the NODWIN playoffs with a 1-0 record and a strong round differential, which supports the view that the bracket has not presented a one-sided team split[8].

For traders, the main catalyst is simply whether the scheduled semifinal is played on time and completed within the settlement window, because the market can still resolve 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed by more than seven days. Live listings indicate the fixture was expected on 6 August at 08:00 UTC, while the settlement window runs to 18:45 UTC the same day[7]. The tournament itself is a single-elimination playoff format with all matches best-of-three, so any change to bracket order, stream schedule, or forfeiture news would matter immediately[4][8]. Current cross-platform pricing appears mixed rather than unanimous: the prediction market sits at parity, while historical sportsbook-style pricing around the prior head-to-head leaned strongly towards 1WIN, suggesting the market is discounting both Butterfly’s recent upset win and the uncertainty around playoff execution[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.