Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

ARCRED meet Butterfly in a best-of-three Counter-Strike playoff match, and the main pricing signal is notably stronger on the sportsbook side than on the prediction market side. Bo3.gg lists ARCRED at 1.50 and Butterfly at 2.50 in winner markets, which implies ARCRED are a clear favourite, while Robinhood’s contract pricing is much closer to a coin flip, with ARCRED around 62¢ and Butterfly around 39¢.[2][10] That makes the current 0% YES crowd-implied probability look like an outlier relative to both the book and the wider market conversation, especially because the fixture is already live-scheduled rather than hypothetical.[1][2][10]

Recent comparable framing also points to how quickly sentiment can move in this tier of event. ARCRED have had live BO3 playoff appearances listed in other recent event coverage, while Butterfly have been active in the same NODWIN Clutch Series ecosystem, suggesting both teams are already in event rhythm rather than arriving cold.[5][6][7][8] For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: whether the match starts on the posted schedule, whether it is officially pushed back, and whether any late roster or bracket changes appear from the event organisers or match trackers before the 7-day settlement cutoff.[1][3] If the game is delayed beyond that window without a result, the contract resolves 50-50, which is the main non-sporting path that can override pre-match win pricing.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.